How good is -1 Par? I mean really...

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Jim Kobylinski

Super Moderator
As some of you know i am a Financial Analyst by profession. I sit around financial data all day long and practically LIVE in Excel.

So for fun i did a VERY BASIC analysis of how good -1 par on the PGA Tour really is. If you could make the tour and average -1 par PER ROUND (total tournament score of -4 par) how would you fair?

Note: these statistics do not include any majors or world golf championshp events, however all other events played this year

Here you go:

Best Finish: 4th
Worst Finish: T59th
Average Finish: 26.35

Top 5s: 2
Top 10s: 1
Top 15s: 3
Top 20s: 7
Top 30s: 4

Cuts Missed: 1 (Buick Invitational)

Total $ Won: $1,523,411
Best $ Won: $264,000 (finished 4th)
Worst $ Won: $12,720 (finished T48, note this is not the worst finish of the year either, worst is T59 but won more money)
Average $ Won: $76,171

Scoring Average: 70.05

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Money List Rank: 24nd
Scoring Average Rank: 21st
FedEx Points Rank: 25th

Looks like if you could make the show and average -1 par each round you'd be sitting pretty good

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This was a quick and dirty analysis and it was not adjusted for course level of difficulty. This was simply what could -1 par each round under any condidtion (except majors) produce. This has been adjusted slightly as the last post i made had a small error. This one also includes the results from the Travelers.

Lastly please note that i did not recalculate what this player would have won if they were simply added to the field. Meaning if 3 people tied for 12th and this new player tied as well the money might be a bit lower. I simply took the numbers and found if you were one of those people where would you stand on the PGA tour.

Thanks
 
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Chris Sturgess

New member
The problem with this is that -1 at the US Open is a drastically different thing from -1 at the Reno-Tahoe Open. The same player would not shoot -1 in both hard tournaments and easy ones. A -4 total will win the US Open and maybe the British and will contend in other majors on hard courses, that will earn well over a million right there. But a guy who shoots -4 in every major will likely also shoot -14 instead of -4 in other tournaments and be a top 10 player in the world. A guy who shoots -4 in other tournaments will shoot +14 in majors and tougher tournaments and might not survive on tour.
 
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Jim Kobylinski

Super Moderator
Chris Sturgess said:
The problem with this is that -1 at the US Open is a drastically different thing from -1 at the Reno-Tahoe Open. The same player would not shoot -1 in both hard tournaments and easy ones. A -4 total will win the US Open and maybe the British and will contend in other majors on hard courses, that will earn well over a million right there. But a guy who shoots -4 in every major will likely also shoot -14 instead of -4 in other tournaments and be a top 10 player in the world. A guy who shoots -4 in other tournaments will shoot +14 in majors and tougher tournaments and might not survive on tour.
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Chris you obviously didn't read my post closely enough. My analysis DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MAJORS OR WORLD GOLF CHAMPIONSHIPS.
 
J

Jim Kobylinski

Super Moderator
tongzilla said:
I dunno...lets say compared to your average public course (which varies a lot i know).
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I was told the majority of courses on tour are in the 135-150 slope range depending on how hard they set it up.

How accurate that is i don't know. However i have played "tour prepped" courses after that particular tour has left town (both nationwide and hooters). One was at The Glen Club (Nationwide Lasalle Bank Open) and the other was Indian Lakes Resort (Hoosters Tour Event).

I found the Lasalle Bank Open to be moderately more difficult than normal due to speedier greens and significantly higher/thicker rough. However this is normal because the Lasalle Bank Open is the 2nd highest payout on the nationwide tour next to the nationwide championship (at least it was i don't know if it has changed). The Hooters Tour event wasn't that much more difficult, just speedier greens.

However as long as i was in the fairway i felt i had a better chance at scoring better because the fairways were cut shorter and they were firmer so my driving distance increased. Also, i putt better on faster greens due my putting stroke. I hate slower/bumpy greens.

Both times i played those courses i wasn't as near as good as i am now so i really can't make a valid comparison. However even back then, i do remember scoring a few strokes lower on the Hooters Tour course (after the event left so it was still tour prepped) than when it was setup normally.

So take that for what it's worth.
 
J

Jim Kobylinski

Super Moderator
TexasAg said:
Interesting analysis. However, 71's will not get you through Q-school or a monday qualifier.
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You are correct, however, like i said in the analysis it is based on if you could make the "show.". I'm not saying it's good enough to monday qualify, make it through q-school, or even qualify for the US Open.

This was simply if you were on the tour, how much could you make and where could stand if you shot -1 consistently.
 
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Chris Sturgess

New member
Does it include the Player's Championship? Because that's a really hard course with the highest purse, probably could pick up 700,000 with minus 4 there. And what about the Tour Championship and the Mercedes? Those are similar to the Players and all three are exclusive tournaments that your average joe shooting 71 wouldn't get into or shoot -4 in if he did. But if somehow he still did he'd pick up about 1.5 million right there.
 
J

Jim Kobylinski

Super Moderator
Chris Sturgess said:
Does it include the Player's Championship? Because that's a really hard course with the highest purse, probably could pick up 700,000 with minus 4 there. And what about the Tour Championship and the Mercedes? Those are similar to the Players and all three are exclusive tournaments that your average joe shooting 71 wouldn't get into or shoot -4 in if he did. But if somehow he still did he'd pick up about 1.5 million right there.
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this is only through THIS YEAR. The Tour Championship won't happen until the end of the season. And more than likely you wouldn't play in every tournament either. This ficticious person, would probably be invited to the Players due to their stellar start and would actually make it into the majors too for that matter.

However, for this fictious person to shoot -4 in the majors wouldn't be likely so i left it out. For them to shoot -4 in the players. It would be quite possible. Also, -4 under at The players this year would put you in a tie for 16th place winning $126,257.

I have clearly stated how the analysis was created and what i was trying to get at and i really don't appreciate your attacks against what is a fairly simple analysis. You are trying to make this out to be more than it is. If you want to pay me my hourly rate i will gladly create a very in depth analysis based on strength of field, course difficulty, a real distribution of what an average -1 player really shoots, etc, etc. That's what i get PAID to do. However this was just something fun to show, if you could make the tour and shoot -1 in every round under any condition except for the majors and world golf championships where would you be? And i clearly showed that you would be sitting pretty well and doing quite well. There are too many people who think if you are on the tour you have to shoot 65 or 67 every round to "make it" and i have clearly shown that you don't.
 
StewartBannatyne

StewartBannatyne

New
TexasAg said:
Interesting analysis. However, 71's will not get you through Q-school or a monday qualifier.
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In fact...-4 would get you through all but two of the first stage qualifiers (the other two it would miss by one shot).

It would have gotten you through three of the six second stage qualifiers.

You would have missed making it to the PGA Tour by two shots in final stage of Q-School. (8 under got in after six rounds).

So still, -1 is pretty darn good. And I can imagine that a 71 scoring average on the Nationwide Tour would get you awfully close to getting your card at the end of the year.

Obviously this is a total interest-only study that Jim did, but it is still very interesting!!!

Stew
 
M

mpro

New
Jim,

I played TPC Sawgrass the day after Greg Norman shot 24 under. We played from the very back of every tee box and I drove it a little sideways and suffered through the worst 83 you ever saw. Balls flying everywhere. The course was set up so hard and the rough so nasty that I just got killed. At Merion from the new tees, just before the US AM, I drove it perfectly and hit 15 greens, but the putting speed killed me 5 3 jacks and a 75. Also rolled it over 18 with a 4 wood and could barely chip the ball from the back of the green onto the green the rough was so deep...When you're used to those conditions, it's hard. when you are not used to those kind of conditions it's REAL hard. To me, you have to hit it very straight or be superhuman out of the rough (Woods comes to mind).
 
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