jeffy
Banned
During next week Masters, we will be treated, no doubt, to countless replays of Tiger's terrific chip-in at 16 on Sunday of last year's tournament.
Obviously it was not an easy shot, took great imagination to "see" and enormous self-confidence to pull off under those conditions. But how tough was it, really? Not as tough as the hype, IMO.
Here's why I think so: the typical Sunday pin placement feeds the ball to the cup. It is almost like a funnel. Consider that during the final round in 2004 there were two aces on 16 and that there was also an ace there in the final round in 2005 (the pin position was pretty much the same both years). Given that there are about 50 players playing Sunday, that is an extraordinary 3 out of 100 probability of acing 16 in the final round at the Masters, or odds against of only about 33 to one. In contrast, I read somewhere on the internet that the probability of a hole-in-one during an average round is 1 out of 5,000, which translates roughly to a 1 out of 20,000 probability on any one par three, assuming an average of four par threes per 18 holes. I assume the odds are better for tour pros, but no where near as good as these odds. That says to me that it is MUCH more than luck that we've seen so many aces at 16 on Sunday; the conditions must be unusually favorable as well.
So, how does this relate to Tiger's chip? Tiger was chipping into the area that feeds the ball to the hole. Even if it hadn't gone in, it was dying right around the cup for an easy tap-in. I've sat near 16 on Sunday, and, in addition to the aces, there are always quite a few tap-in birdies, the crowd oohing and aahing as the ball feeds down that slope. That doesn't happen when the pin is elsewhere on that green. If Tiger were chipping to the upper right portion of the green, for example (the toughest pin location on 16), the ball would run away from the cup. Compared to Watson's chip-in on 17 at Pebble Beach, where the green went away from him and the ball would have been 15 feet past if it had missed the cup, Tiger's conditions were much more favorable. A great shot, no doubt, but not the "one out of a million" effort popularly portrayed.
Anyway, that's my take. Let the flaming begin!
Obviously it was not an easy shot, took great imagination to "see" and enormous self-confidence to pull off under those conditions. But how tough was it, really? Not as tough as the hype, IMO.
Here's why I think so: the typical Sunday pin placement feeds the ball to the cup. It is almost like a funnel. Consider that during the final round in 2004 there were two aces on 16 and that there was also an ace there in the final round in 2005 (the pin position was pretty much the same both years). Given that there are about 50 players playing Sunday, that is an extraordinary 3 out of 100 probability of acing 16 in the final round at the Masters, or odds against of only about 33 to one. In contrast, I read somewhere on the internet that the probability of a hole-in-one during an average round is 1 out of 5,000, which translates roughly to a 1 out of 20,000 probability on any one par three, assuming an average of four par threes per 18 holes. I assume the odds are better for tour pros, but no where near as good as these odds. That says to me that it is MUCH more than luck that we've seen so many aces at 16 on Sunday; the conditions must be unusually favorable as well.
So, how does this relate to Tiger's chip? Tiger was chipping into the area that feeds the ball to the hole. Even if it hadn't gone in, it was dying right around the cup for an easy tap-in. I've sat near 16 on Sunday, and, in addition to the aces, there are always quite a few tap-in birdies, the crowd oohing and aahing as the ball feeds down that slope. That doesn't happen when the pin is elsewhere on that green. If Tiger were chipping to the upper right portion of the green, for example (the toughest pin location on 16), the ball would run away from the cup. Compared to Watson's chip-in on 17 at Pebble Beach, where the green went away from him and the ball would have been 15 feet past if it had missed the cup, Tiger's conditions were much more favorable. A great shot, no doubt, but not the "one out of a million" effort popularly portrayed.
Anyway, that's my take. Let the flaming begin!
