Manzella's WHAS appearances...

[Brian Manzella]

Here is the stream...

http://www.whas.com/cc-common/streaming_new/index.html?refreshed=yes

Talking Golf, College Football and a little New Orleans, on the Terry Meiners' show on 50,000 watt WHAS 84.

 

[rbaumgolf]

Great Show!

As a transplanted Kentuckian living in the St Louis area I'm still amazed that football is even used in the same sentence with LVille and UK (and U Cincinnati) Go Kats!!

 

[Leek]

darn, I just saw this an hour too late. IS there a replay?

 

[multi]

It was pretty cool, a lot of college football talk. Never followed college football aside from the annual UCLA-USC game, so I can't comment on a lot of it.

 

[Brian Manzella]

Cool.

Imagine Leadbetter or Haney talking College Football...

 

[tourdeep]

As always, entertaining as can be, very approachable demeanor and sincere! The broadcast was crystal clear in my neck of the woods, almost like sitting next to me. Football talk was primary, was hoping for more golf, tho! Lots of good plugs as the man to see to fix a slice! Was it 412-golf?!!!!

LSU moving up the ranks based on the performance of the lackluster win against the Washington puppies? It's deserving. But, plain and simple, USC kicked the huck out of my beloved Fuskies, at least on paper, but barely in points scored. If it weren't for an interception return for TD, a ton of penalties, and a blocked punt near the end of the game, USC probably would have covered the 20.5 points or so spread. USC made the Huskies look good. But that's football.

Locker, the redshirt freshman is the white man's verions of Michael Vick. The dude can flat out run and place tremendous pressure on a defense. The problem is that Locker can't hit the bright side of a barn. Heck, he can't hit the dull side! Put a spy or two on him and he's dead meat. He is fun to watch, but way wo too many overthrown passes. If he figures it out by next year, the Huskies will be very competitive in arguably the toughest conferece in the nation. USC has no cakewalk to the championship.

And the US open. It's interesting that non-americans have won the event past four or five years!

 

[Michael Jacobs]

Imagine Leadbetter or Haney talking College Football...

Waiting to see you on the airwaves with Dr. Phil

 

[Brian Manzella]

!

As always, entertaining as can be, very approachable demeanor and sincere! The broadcast was crystal clear in my neck of the woods, almost like sitting next to me. Football talk was primary, was hoping for more golf, tho! Lots of good plugs as the man to see to fix a slice! Was it 412-golf?!!!!


And the US open. It's interesting that non-americans have won the event past four or five years!

Thanks for the kind words.

What I was trying to say was the AMERICANS play much better in the US OPEN, and the more difficult PGA set-ups than the UK-Euro Ryder Cup eligibles.

Last winner for them was 1970.

It's (502) 417-Golf

 

[tourdeep]

As always, entertaining as can be, very approachable demeanor and sincere! The broadcast was crystal clear in my neck of the woods, almost like sitting next to me. Football talk was primary, was hoping for more golf, tho! Lots of good plugs as the man to see to fix a slice! Was it 412-golf?!!!!

LSU moving up the ranks based on the performance of the lackluster win against the Washington puppies? It's deserving. But, plain and simple, USC kicked the huck out of my beloved Fuskies, at least on paper, but barely in points scored. If it weren't for an interception return for TD, a ton of penalties, and a blocked punt near the end of the game, USC probably would have covered the 20.5 points or so spread. USC made the Huskies look good. But that's football.

Locker, the redshirt freshman is the white man's verions of Michael Vick. The dude can flat out run and place tremendous pressure on a defense. The problem is that Locker can't hit the bright side of a barn. Heck, he can't hit the dull side! Put a spy or two on him and he's dead meat. He is fun to watch, but way wo too many overthrown passes. If he figures it out by next year, the Huskies will be very competitive in arguably the toughest conferece in the nation. USC has no cakewalk to the championship.

And the US open. It's interesting that non-americans have won the event past four or five years!

Will he stay or go?!

Yes, the Huskies beat USC soundly this year, a very emotional win for the new team and coaching staff. Sarkisian has installed a system that caters to any qback. Locker has a gun and now can control the speed of his bullet with touch, is very mobile and is just learning how to become a pocket passer. In possibly his last game as a Husky, Locker displayed his talents as he dominated California with a one game performance that would make him a shoe in for the Heisman trophy of the week. He was sharp. He zipped it when needed, the right amount of air over coverage, did a great Vick imitation (not with dogs, but with the DAWGS) and he now can hit any colored barn.

He may be the first qb taken in the draft should he opt for the pro's and get 50 or more million reasons as an incentive to take it to the next level while injury free along with avoiding a possible new rule which could cap rookie salaries.

He stays, he becomes the leading candidate for the Heisman next year and probably will lead UW to a bowl game. Recruiting improves. Montana gets to learn from Locker. He stays healthy, he becomes the number one pick or two or three, gets 60-to 70 million reasons as a bonus for staying behind while blossoming even more under Sarkisian.

I say stay! Give the Husky fans something we have not seen in years, a winning season!

 

[birdie_man]

Brian you must be jacked about The Saints.

I don't watch much football but I root for em.

I don't know much but it must've been a wrap when Brees went 10/10 on Sport Science.

They will go all...the...way, I presume.

 

[holeout]

Brian you must be jacked about The Saints.

I don't watch much football but I root for em.

I don't know much but it must've been a wrap when Brees went 10/10 on Sport Science.

They will go all...the...way, I presume.

Oh silly Canadians...

12-0 is great, but as Brian knows, you only need to go 4-0 (or 3-0 with the bye the Saints will certainly have) at the end of the season for it to matter at all. Not to mention we have another 12-0 team (Colts) which is unheard of.

That being said, the Saints have a very motivated QB, fast and talented defense, and what could now be the best home-field advantage in the league. It'll be fun to watch. All we can hope for is a Saints-Vikes NFC Championship and a Colts-Chargers (or Pats) AFC Championship. Should be fun.

 

[Richie3Jack]

That being said, the Saints have a very motivated QB, fast and talented defense, and what could now be the best home-field advantage in the league. It'll be fun to watch. All we can hope for is a Saints-Vikes NFC Championship and a Colts-Chargers (or Pats) AFC Championship. Should be fun.

I'm a stat head as I've worked in the statistics field for quite awhile.

One of the things I love doing is taking statistics and see how the relate to sports, especially the NFL.

The statistic that has the strongest statistical correlation is what I call QBRD (QB Rating Differential). All this is:

Team's Offensive QB Rating - Team's Defensive QB Rating Allowed = QBRD

The correlation coefficient is in the +0.8 to +0.85 range, meaning that it has an extremely high correlation to winning and losing in the NFL. The higher the QBRD, the more wins the team will likely have.

Anyway...

The Saints currently have a +48.6 QBRD. They were at a +55.0 QBRD just a week ago.

The last 62 teams to *go* to the Super Bowl, the highest regular season QBRD was the '89 Niners with +46.3. So the Saints are looking like an all-time great team in NFL history at this point.

Anyway, here's the complete list of the QBRD's for the last 62 teams to go to the Super Bowl.

1989 San Francisco 49ers 46.3
1994 San Francisco 49ers 43.3
1999 St. Louis Rams 42.5
1996 Green Bay Packers 40.3
1991 Washington Redskins 39.1
2007 New England Patriots 37.9
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37.9
1984 Miami Dolphins 37.1
1984 San Francisco 49ers 36.3
1980 Philadelphia Eagles 34.4
1997 Green Bay Packers 32.9
1991 Buffalo Bills 32.4
2001 St. Louis Rams 32.3
1978 Pittsburgh Steelers 29.7
1978 Dallas Cowboys 29.4
1990 New York Giants 28.4
2003 New England Patriots 28.1
1981 San Francisco 49ers 27.5
1988 Cincinnati Bengals 27.4
1983 Washington Redskins 27.4
1985 Chicago Bears 26.1
1990 Buffalo Bills 25
1982 Washington Redskins 24.1
1993 Dallas Cowboys 21.5
2006 Indianapolis Colts 20.6
2004 Philadelphia Eagles 20.6
1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 20.2
2002 Oakland Raiders 19.9
2005 Seattle Seahawks 19.4
1995 Dallas Cowboys 19.4
1992 Dallas Cowboys 18.9
1987 Washington Redskins 17.7
2004 New England Patriots 17.2
2001 New England Patriots 16.7
1998 Atlanta Falcons 15.9
1997 Denver Broncos 15.9
2008 Pittsburgh Steelers 15.7
2005 Pittsburgh Steelers 15.4
1982 Miami Dolphins 15.3
1987 Denver Broncos 14.6
1981 Cincinnati Bengals 14.4
1996 New England Patriots 14.3
1985 New England Patriots 13.7
1998 Denver Broncos 13
1983 Oakland Raiders 12.9
1988 San Francisco 49ers 11.3
1993 Buffalo Bills 11
2008 Arizona Cardinals 10.8
2000 Baltimore Ravens 10.2
1989 Denver Broncos 9.6
2000 New York Giants 9.4
1980 Oakland Raiders 8.2
2006 Chicago Bears 7
1986 New York Giants 6.4
2003 Carolina Panthers 4.8
1992 Buffalo Bills 4.8
1986 Denver Broncos 2.8
1999 Tennessee Titans 0.8
1995 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.2
1994 San Diego Chargers -0.7
1979 Los Angeles Rams -3.3
2007 New York Giants -9.5






3JACK

 

[LiftOff]

Cool list

Where do you get your numbers?

Thanks

 

[Richie3Jack]

Where do you get your numbers?

Thanks

I did this awhile ago. You can find QB rating statistics on NFL.com.



3JACK

 

[Shot Limit]

You're about to get a close up view, huh Richie?

 

[vjsinger]

What about a stat that calculates the frequency of teams that go to the SB or win the ring with the most players on the Injured Reserve in the NFL? You got a stat for that?

 

[Richie3Jack]

What about a stat that calculates the frequency of teams that go to the SB or win the ring with the most players on the Injured Reserve in the NFL? You got a stat for that?

No, but I've read statistics on injuries and wins and they do correlate to one another. Most of the time the Super Bowl champ doesn't have a ton of injuries. Furthermore, most of the time the SB champ usually winds up playing a pretty easy schedule as well.

Like I said, *most* of the time. If you guys are interested, here's the current QBRD rankings for this season and their 'projected wins' using a linear regression formula to predict wins. So remember, this is not based on 'certainty', but 'probability.' Just so everyone knows, I'm a diehard Cowboys fan.

Rnk………………..Team…………………………...QBRD
1……………..New Orleans Saints………………………48.6
2……………..Green Bay Packers………………………35.4
3……………..Indianapolis Colts………………………25.1
4……………..San Diego Chargers………………………22.3
5……………..Philadelphia Eagles………………………20.5
6……………..Minnesota Vikings………………………17.6
7……………..New England Patriots………………………14.6
8……………..Pittsburgh Steelers………………………14.4
9……………..Arizona Cardinals………………………13.5
10……………..Cincinnati Bengals………………………11.3
11……………..Dallas Cowboys………………………10.5
12……………..Houston Texans………………………9.2
13……………..Denver Broncos………………………8.1
14……………..Buffalo Bills………………………7.5
15……………..Washington Redskins………………………4.8
16……………..Baltimore Ravens………………………4.3
17……………..San Francisco 49ers………………………0.1
18……………..New York Giants………………………-0.7
19……………..New York Jets………………………-2.3
20……………..Jacksonville Jaguars………………………-4.4
21……………..Seattle Seahawks………………………-9.8
22……………..Miami Dolphins………………………-11.4
23……………..Chicago Bears………………………-13.2
24……………..Carolina Panthers………………………-14.5
25……………..Atlanta Falcons………………………-17.4
26……………..Kansas City Chiefs………………………-19.6
27……………..St. Louis Rams………………………-23.9
28……………..Tennessee Titans………………………-25.3
29……………..Oakland Raiders………………………-28.5
30……………..Tampa Bay Buccaneers………………………-30.5
31……………..Cleveland Browns………………………-40.2
32……………..Detroit Lions………………………-48.1

PROJECTED WINS
Team……………………………………………….......Proj. Wins
New Orleans Saints……………………………………16.46
Green Bay Packers……………………………………14.17
Indianapolis Colts……………………………………12.39
San Diego Chargers……………………………………11.90
Philadelphia Eagles……………………………………11.59
Minnesota Vikings……………………………………11.08
New England Patriots……………………………………10.56
Pittsburgh Steelers……………………………………10.53
Arizona Cardinals……………………………………10.37
Cincinnati Bengals……………………………………9.99
Dallas Cowboys……………………………………9.85
Houston Texans……………………………………9.63
Denver Broncos……………………………………9.44
Buffalo Bills……………………………………9.34
Washington Redskins……………………………………8.86
Baltimore Ravens……………………………………8.78
San Francisco 49ers……………………………………8.05
New York Giants……………………………………7.91
New York Jets……………………………………7.63
Jacksonville Jaguars……………………………………7.27
Seattle Seahawks……………………………………6.33
Miami Dolphins……………………………………6.06
Chicago Bears……………………………………5.74
Carolina Panthers……………………………………5.52
Atlanta Falcons……………………………………5.02
Kansas City Chiefs……………………………………4.63
St. Louis Rams……………………………………3.89
Tennessee Titans……………………………………3.65
Oakland Raiders……………………………………3.09
Tampa Bay Buccaneers……………………………………2.74
Cleveland Browns……………………………………1.06
Detroit Lions……………………………………-0.31

 

[TheWoat]

My Raiders have already surpassed expectations!.. and the Falcons seem to be an outlier.

 

[TROYNYGOLFER]

No, but I've read statistics on injuries and wins and they do correlate to one another. Most of the time the Super Bowl champ doesn't have a ton of injuries. Furthermore, most of the time the SB champ usually winds up playing a pretty easy schedule as well.

Like I said, *most* of the time. If you guys are interested, here's the current QBRD rankings for this season and their 'projected wins' using a linear regression formula to predict wins. So remember, this is not based on 'certainty', but 'probability.' Just so everyone knows, I'm a diehard Cowboys fan.

So my beloved Packers appear to be the official underachievers of the 3Jack statistical prediction system.....figures. Sorry about that loss last week, I live in the middle of Giant country and have had to listen to the mindless gloating for the past few days.

 

[Richie3Jack]

So my beloved Packers appear to be the official underachievers of the 3Jack statistical prediction system.....figures. Sorry about that loss last week, I live in the middle of Giant country and have had to listen to the mindless gloating for the past few days.

Remember a few things:

1. Packers fans were on McCarthey for the Pack's record early in the season. With their QBRD and their record earlier on you could see the fan's reasoning.

2. QBRD is about 'probability', not 'certainty.' So if a team has a high QBRD and low wins, then there's something causing problems, like turnover margin, special teams play, poor clock management, or a QB that throws dink and dunk passes which pads the QB Rating stat.

3. When looking at Super Bowl teams, here's the stats I look at in order of importance:

- QBRD
- Points Allowed (team should want to be in the top 8 in points allowed)
- Turnover Margin
- Sacks (40+ sacks in reg. season is a good number)

The Packers rank well in QBRD and turnover margin (lead the league +18). Their defense is now ranked 8th in points allowed and is on pace for 35 sacks.

I haven't watched a ton of Packers games, but it appears that their defense was problematic early on and is now coming on down the stretch and now they've just made the top 8 in points allowed and their rate of sacking the QB has increased.

I think the Packers are the team nobody should want to face, except for the Vikings because they have such a great pass rush and that's really the Packers' major weakness statistically.





3JACK