Dumb Luck?

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Brian,

Thanks for the answer. Another demonstration of your honesty and constant endeavour to improve. I would recommend to anyone reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb's books: "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan" which deal with how much of the success in the financial world and other areas of life can be attributed to randonmess. I don't claim to understand fully his arguments but I think some of it could be applied to teaching golf. Maybe Leo could help us out with this.
Yours,

James

Great books, but in real life if you think your future is determined by the whims of randomness then you will probably not work your butt off which is what real success is about.
 

Brian Manzella

Administrator
Great books, but in real life if you think your future is determined by the whims of randomness then you will probably not work your butt off which is what real success is about.

I picked a crazy profession.

If I had been this knowledgeable, this good, at ANY other profession (with the possible exception of music), I'd be world famous.

So what?

I love the struggle. I love to be the guy they try to keep down. I love to be the smartest guy in the room, when I'm in the room with famous peers.

I'd rather be in the room with Grober and Zick, because I love to learn even more.

The internet has removed some of the dumb luck from MY equation. But lots of hard work is still ahead.

Thanks to all for helping me learn, helping me get noticed, and giving "Chris Strugess" (I really don't think that's who that is) something to do.
 
I picked a crazy profession.

If I had been this knowledgeable, this good, at ANY other profession (with the possible exception of music), I'd be world famous.

So what?

I love the struggle. I love to be the guy they try to keep down. I love to be the smartest guy in the room, when I'm in the room with famous peers.

I'd rather be in the room with Grober and Zick, because I love to learn even more.

The internet has removed some of the dumb luck from MY equation. But lots of hard work is still ahead.

Thanks to all for helping me learn, helping me get noticed, and giving "Chris Strugess" (I really don't think that's who that is) something to do.

sometimes the smartest guy in the room is the guy that would never EVER say, or even think, that he's the smartest guy in the room. why? because he's always got so much more to learn. even if he's learnt it all, in his mind there's still more.

often it's the quiet guy that gets noticed because on the few occasions that he speaks, people listen. when people have a lot to say it often goes unnoticed because people aren't quite as attentive. apply with force and people will resist, hold it back and they'll drag it out of you.

however, confidence is a good thing too. here brian has the command of an audience. and he has a lot to say. and I for one always listen.
 
Success can often be nothing but dumb luck.

But with one other factor, being in the right place at the right time....

And BTW I don't think there is anything that is "random"....even in a seemingly random scenario there are patterns....:)
 
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Brian Manzella

Administrator
Back to the facts.

Is the success of a PGA Tour player who decides on, and carries through on, a major swing overhaul, have more to do with luck, talent of he or the teacher, hard work, or dumb luck?

In my opinion, the answer is dumb luck.

Here are my numbers:
Dumb Luck - 60%
Player Talent - 25%
Teacher Talent - 15%
Hard Work - 10%

This is an "across the board" observation.

Remember, we are talking about "swing overhauls" because that was the question.

The main factor of "Dumb Luck" is this:

Is what the student was trying to do before, worse than what they are trying to do now?

That is the BIGGEST SOURCE of confusion on Tour, because there there are so many method teachers, and almost ALL of the methods, have some mechanical/scientific flaws.

Dumb Luck is a big factor is picking one somewhat flawed method, over one even more flawed.

Get it?
 
But with one other factor, being in the right place at the right time....

And BTW I don't think there is anything that is "random"....even in a seemingly random scenario there are patterns....:)

Exactly - Being in the right place at the right time.... is dumb luck. Ask Bill Gates.

If Brian's young pupil had been Tiger Woods 25 years ago? - well you know the rest of the story.
 
...

Exactly - Being in the right place at the right time.... is dumb luck. Ask Bill Gates.

If Brian's young pupil had been Tiger Woods 25 years ago? - well you know the rest of the story.

Sorry mb, I come from a different school of thought...:)

To be in the right place at the right time, to me anyway, involves a concious decision to be there, for whatever reason...so where's the "dumb" luck?.....

Dumb luck to me would be say, a sniper aiming at your head, and just as he pulls the trigger you bend down to tie your shoelace......but then again, you did make a concious decision to tie your shoelace.....:D
 
Exactly - Being in the right place at the right time.... is dumb luck. Ask Bill Gates.

If Brian's young pupil had been Tiger Woods 25 years ago? - well you know the rest of the story.

you are really missing how much work these people did to become what they are. saying that Bill Gates is who he is because of being in the right place at the right time is crazy. he helped create the "time" by making computers usable for lay people. people that think that all the accomplishments of exceptional people are dumb luck and coincidence are fooling themselves into thinking that the same could've happend to them if they had only "been in the right place at the right time".
 
you are really missing how much work these people did to become what they are. saying that Bill Gates is who he is because of being in the right place at the right time is crazy. he helped create the "time" by making computers usable for lay people. people that think that all the accomplishments of exceptional people are dumb luck and coincidence are fooling themselves into thinking that the same could've happend to them if they had only "been in the right place at the right time".

I couldn't agree with you more. Claiming a large part of success is luck is a cop-out for those who are less-than-successful themselves.

Except for swing changes. I think Brian's breakdown is very close to the truth.
 

Brian Manzella

Administrator
Here we go again...

I keep trying to be perfectly on point....but

Remember, we were talking about the "luck of the draw" of anyone, much less a PGA Tour player, picking he RIGHT teacher for a swing overhaul.

But you want to talk about career luck.

Ok.

Here are the facts:

In the golf teaching business, nobody CARES who can out teach who. Nobody that makes hiring decisions, or Golf Channel decisions.

I have NEVER EVEN HEARD OF a teaching job that went to "teacher A" over "teacher B" because "teacher A" was better at giving lessons or clinics or schools. Not even once.

There are next to ZERO professions that this is the case.

You can not teach your way out of obscurity.

Jimmy Ballard came the closest, but without Mac McClendon spreading the word, he'd still be in Alabama at that little Driving Range.

The ONLY REASON 95% of you have heard of me is I out argued, out explained, out helped, out videoed, out wrote, and out smarted the other yahoos on the internet.

In other words, I have gotten to where I am today DESPITE the golf business, and the golf media.

You CAN make your own breaks, but it's tough.

If I was a defense lawyer, they'd have sent the Maybach to get me years ago. ;)
 

Chris Sturgess

New member
you are really missing how much work these people did to become what they are. saying that Bill Gates is who he is because of being in the right place at the right time is crazy. he helped create the "time" by making computers usable for lay people. people that think that all the accomplishments of exceptional people are dumb luck and coincidence are fooling themselves into thinking that the same could've happend to them if they had only "been in the right place at the right time".

Bill Gates actually stole that idea from other people and then created a monopoly which is unfair to the consumer. He was lucky that other people came up with the idea but was skillful in stealing it an marketing it. He isn't actually anything more than an average software designer, but he is an exceptional manipulator and opportunist.
 

Chris Sturgess

New member
I keep trying to be perfectly on point....but

Remember, we were talking about the "luck of the draw" of anyone, much less a PGA Tour player, picking he RIGHT teacher for a swing overhaul.

But you want to talk about career luck.

Ok.

Here are the facts:

In the golf teaching business, nobody CARES who can out teach who. Nobody that makes hiring decisions, or Golf Channel decisions.

I have NEVER EVEN HEARD OF a teaching job that went to "teacher A" over "teacher B" because "teacher A" was better at giving lessons or clinics or schools. Not even once.

There are next to ZERO professions that this is the case.

You can not teach your way out of obscurity.

You are naive. The reality is that most professions are exactly as you describe here. The golf teaching industry is not an exception, it's the norm. Very few professions are based on legitimate merit. Most are based on bs pr networking manipulation etc. A lot of CEO's and VPs are total morons. Check out the subprime crash for thousands of examples.

That's what's great about the actual pga tour, it's based on merit not bs.
 

Brian Manzella

Administrator
You are naive. The reality is that most professions are exactly as you describe here. Very few professions are based on legitimate merit. Most are based on bs pr networking manipulation etc. A lot of CEO's and VPs are total morons. Check out the subprime crash for thousands of examples.

That's what's great about the actual pga tour, it's based on merit not bs.

Chris,

You are mostly correct this time.

But, the golf business is FAR AHEAD of banks and financial institutions in this regard.

Take the case of a good friend of mine's nephew, who is also a good friend.
(the names are left out to protect the innocent)

He is a very good player, and became an excellent teacher, having worked with several of the nations finest instructors.

He worked his way up—like most of us—from the lowest assistant's job at a decent course, to the 1st assistant and most popular teacher at a very good country club.

He loved teaching, and one of his member/students owned a nice Driving Range that needed a full-time teacher. He was hired and as the only teacher at a busy range, going in with nearly a full book of his country club clientele,
was quickly the #1 teacher in the city.

After two full seasons, with nowhere to go but up, the range was sold for millions to develop real estate.

The young teacher knocked on every door in town, and they were ALL TO HAPPY to tell him, sorry, "there is no room at the inn."

28 years old. Out of the business.

Now, for sure, he could have moved, or got another assistant's job, but....

If you think this happens to the #1 Car Salesman in that town, or the #1 Insurance Salesmen, or #1 Car Detailer, or #1 Fast Food Manager, you are high.

I rest my case.
 
you are really missing how much work these people did to become what they are. saying that Bill Gates is who he is because of being in the right place at the right time is crazy. he helped create the "time" by making computers usable for lay people. people that think that all the accomplishments of exceptional people are dumb luck and coincidence are fooling themselves into thinking that the same could've happend to them if they had only "been in the right place at the right time".

Research the history of Gates and his software. His DOS was nothing but a ripoff of CPM. It was a third rate operating system that IBM licensed from Gates for their new "toy" micro computers. Why did they choose Gates? Because Apple and Digital Research refused IBM. The greatest minds in Hi-Tech worked at IBM. The geniuses at IBM estimated that they would sell roughly 60,000 PC's per year. A joke in their minds. They could have easily bought Gates software. IBM could have made the PC proprietary. They were simply fat happy and dumb - probably the worst business decision in the last 50 years. Gates was extremely lucky - he won with an inferior product simply because IBM chose him. All the great advances in PC computing Microsoft copied, bought, etc. from others even today they stumble and bumble - Vista anyone?
 
you are really missing how much work these people did to become what they are. saying that Bill Gates is who he is because of being in the right place at the right time is crazy. he helped create the "time" by making computers usable for lay people. ".

That is the biggest laugh of all - DOS was hardly usable. Apple created the first truly usable graphical interface the MAC. Gates simply ripped off Apple. Lotus created the first spreadsheet. Gates ripped them off. Wordstar and Word Perfect were the first typing programs for Dos again Gates copied them. Gates has been last to the party every time. Graphical interfaces, multitasking, mulituser,networking, internet browser, handhelds, etc., etc..
 
Chris,

You are mostly correct this time.

But, the golf business is FAR AHEAD of banks and financial institutions in this regard.

Take the case of a good friend of mine's nephew, who is also a good friend.
(the names are left out to protect the innocent)

He is a very good player, and became an excellent teacher, having worked with several of the nations finest instructors.

He worked his way up—like most of us—from the lowest assistant's job at a decent course, to the 1st assistant and most popular teacher at a very good country club.

He loved teaching, and one of his member/students owned a nice Driving Range that needed a full-time teacher. He was hired and as the only teacher at a busy range, going in with nearly a full book of his country club clientele,
was quickly the #1 teacher in the city.

After two full seasons, with nowhere to go but up, the range was sold for millions to develop real estate.

The young teacher knocked on every door in town, and they were ALL TO HAPPY to tell him, sorry, "there is no room at the inn."

28 years old. Out of the business.

Now, for sure, he could have moved, or got another assistant's job, but....

If you think this happens to the #1 Car Salesman in that town, or the #1 Insurance Salesmen, or #1 Car Detailer, or #1 Fast Food Manager, you are high.

I rest my case.

How long did it take for him to move up from his assistant's position?

Stinks for him cause he loved it..........any plans to give it another try?........or is he waiting to land a good teaching job?

(rather than spend time and sacrifice money to start from the bottom again)
 
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