Richie3Jack
New
That's because they are playing Augusta.
I've done quite a bit of statistical reseach on the PGA Tour. The basic premise I've found is that the part of the game that means most on Tour (doesn't mean *all*, just *most*) is approach shots from 175-225 yards.
Putting is overrated to a degree. If you're slightly below average and somebody is slightly above average...in the long haul, not going to make a difference. But if you're really good (i.e. Luke Donald) or really bad (i.e. Heath Slocum) it makes a big difference. Luke Donald's ballstriking stats are not impressive by any stretch. But, he's the best putter on Tour statistically and he's usually about average to slightly above average from 175-225 yards out. Put the two together, #5 ranked player in the world even though he's short off the tee and not very accurate. Slocum statistically is as good as anybody striking the ball and from 175-225 yards out. But he's such a poor putter and has only moderate length off the tee...so that's the type of player he is. Good, going to make money out Tour and keep his card.
Mickelson is a better example though. Terrible putter statistically, but really great from 175-225 yards. And has a great game around the greens from 20 yards in. Combine that with his power off the tee, if he putts about the average for the field, he's likely to contend. If he putts better than average, then he's likely to dominate.
What's funny is that the long hitters who are good players, but wild off the tee...are usually very poor from 100-150 yards out. But, since they are good...they are usually very good from 175-225 yards (again, that's what's usually the most important part statistically). The opposite for the typical short hitters...really good from 100-150, but they tend to struggle from 175-225.
However, *most* of the time, it doesn't matter how long or short you hit it, if you want to be in the tops of adjusted stroke average on Tour, you're going to need to hit it consistently close from 175-225 yards.
Where power comes into play is it affects the amount of times the golfer is in the 175-225 yard range.
A Tour golfer cannot avoid that range in a tournament because most of the par-3's are about 175-225 yards long. But on par-4's...the longer hitter can hit it past that range. There's a giant advantage on Tour between 150 yard approach and a 175 yard approach (unless the 150 yard one is from the rough and the 175 yard one is from the fairway).
Somebody like Bubba Watson will average in a 4-round tournament, 14 approach shots from 175-225 yards. Somebody like Corey Pavin...about 20 shots from 175-225 yards. Those are 6 extremely important golf shots.
However, sacrificing distance for accuracy can be valuable. On average, the PGA Tour players are about 30% more accurate on the same distance shot from the fairway than they are the rough.
Let's say DL III is playing by himself and playing 2-balls. He could have hit 2 shots to 170 yards, one is in the fwy, one is in the rough.
On average, his shot from the fairway may land 30 feet from the cup. And on average, he's likely to hit the shot from the rough to 40 feet or so. So if you take off about 15-30 yards in order to ensure you find the fairway...probably not a bad idea. Of course, it's a bit difficult to determine those odds sometimes. I can take 15-30 yards off and have a better chance of hitting the fairway...but it may be only a 5% better chance of hitting that fairway. So I'd rather take my normal swing and take my chances because I'll hit it further and get closer to the hole.
Where the odds work in the bomber's favor is when they get about 30-50 yards closer to the hole. That's because in that range, the average PGA Tour player that is 30-50 yards closer to the cup and in the rough...will likely hit it as close as the golfer 30-50 yards behind and in the fairway.
But, if the golfer is 30-50 yards longer AND in the fairway, he's likely to hit it about 50% closer than the shorter tee shot that's in the fairway. Then if you get the guy who is 30-50 yards longer, in the fairway vs. the guy 30-50 yards longer and in the rough....massive difference.
So to me, it's almost a shame these bombers are often really poor by Tour standards from 100-150 yards out. Somebody like Dustin Johnson is a good example. Bombs it, putts pretty average, pretty average around the green and usually one of the best from 175-225 yards out. Abysmal from 100-150 yards away. If he was say above average from 100-150 yards out...he'd be very tough to beat.
3JACK
