Michael Finney
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David Toms
the same guy who led fairways hit in the Masters also led GIR......
- Thread starter Michael Finney
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curtisj76
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Maybe we need Richie3jack's stats on proximity to the cup or whatever he talks about. He might have had a GIR but it was a long ways from the cup. IDK, the announcers always love David's putting stroke.
mjstrong
New
I think it must take a lot more than a pure stroke to putt well at Augusta. Easy to have an off week on the greens there if your touch is off a little.
Richie3Jack
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Distance has *an* advantage to it. Just like accuracy and precision have *an* advantage to it.
In '09, Toms finished 90th in 'putts gained.' Which is dead on average. In '10, he finished 53rd, which is above average.
I don't think Toms is the world class putter he's given credit for. He's more or less average to pretty good and is a phenomenal ballstriker.
But at Augusta, he's screwed because they've let it become a bomb-n-gouge course. When I see somebody like Kuchar needing a hybrid into 13 while guys like Tiger can use a 7-iron...tough for a guy like Kuchar or Toms to compete with that.
That doesn't mean that distance is always the way to go...but at Augusta it is.
Which has me thinking there's another advantage to power on Tour, it gives you a major advantage at 1 of the 4 Majors every year.
3JACK
In '09, Toms finished 90th in 'putts gained.' Which is dead on average. In '10, he finished 53rd, which is above average.
I don't think Toms is the world class putter he's given credit for. He's more or less average to pretty good and is a phenomenal ballstriker.
But at Augusta, he's screwed because they've let it become a bomb-n-gouge course. When I see somebody like Kuchar needing a hybrid into 13 while guys like Tiger can use a 7-iron...tough for a guy like Kuchar or Toms to compete with that.
That doesn't mean that distance is always the way to go...but at Augusta it is.
Which has me thinking there's another advantage to power on Tour, it gives you a major advantage at 1 of the 4 Majors every year.
3JACK
mjstrong
New
Id say, in at least, 1 of 4 majors per year. Whistling Straits was not conducive to scoring if you were a short knocker (Watney, D Johnson, Bubba, and Kaymer are not in this category).
It should be a mandate of at least one of the majors to cater to a variety of golf styles, perhaps the Open Championship.
It should be a mandate of at least one of the majors to cater to a variety of golf styles, perhaps the Open Championship.
Richie3Jack
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I think every major should cater to a variety of golf styles. If I wanted to see bomb-n-gouge golf, I'd just watch the Shell Open and Tuscon.
I think bombers should be rewarded even if they miss the fairway. I just think they should be punished when the miss the fairway by a good margin. Unfortunately, they rarely are these days.
Bay Hill was great this year. It got a little windy, the rough was kinda thick just a short distance from the fairway. All styles of golfers stood a chance. Laird came away the winner and he's traditionally a pretty long player who strikes the ball well (obviously, had a bad 4th round). But, we also had Marino, Justin Rose and Toms right in the mix.
I can understand Augusta to a degree. Although I think they should do something about it. But, I get really discouraged when I see the US Open follow suit instead of standing its ground and sticking to what the US Open is known for.
3JACK
Jim Kobylinski
Super Moderator
While i actually agree with you and said this years ago and put a post up about how no one who averages under like 290 yards on the tour could win....why does Tim Clark tend to do well at Augusta? Any data on that? He's always hitting hybrids at that place all the time. Seems like when he goes there he does ok, finished 2nd one year and i think close to a couple top tens
That's because he's better with those hybrids than most of the other shorter hitters, and there are always exceptions.
Richie3Jack
New
I've found that there are essentially four components to the game that matter the most to PGA Tour pros.
- Approach shots from 175-225 yards (I call this 'Danger Zone' play because this is where golfers lose the most shots on the course)
- Advanced Total Driving (figures in distance, fwy % and proximity to edge of fairway. I have a formula for this that best reflects the correlation to adjusted scoring average on Tour).
- Putts Gained (a stat the MIT guys came up with to best represent putting skill, it negates putting distance and how easy the greens are).
- Adjusted Short Game (a formula that looks at the pros promixity to the cup numbers on shots off the green, but from 0-20 yards away).
Danger Zone play typically rules on the PGA Tour. It has a far stronger correlation to adjusted stroke average than the other three. The other 3 have about the same correlation statistically. This is where you see 'the story' of how a golfer gets it done.
For example, Mickelson....he's been weak in Advanced Total Driving. And he's been weak at putting. But, great short game and actually one of the best, year in and year out from the Danger Zone. Because he's great from the Danger Zone, that alone will get him to make a decent time on Tour. Combine that with being great with the short game and his power off the tee, that alone means he'll likely make cuts week-after-week. So really, all Phil has to do is putt average for the field and he's likely in contention. And if he has an average tournament driving the ball...now he's probably going to win.
But still, long or short off the tee.....great putter or terrible putter...you better do at least average from the Danger Zone or 'fuhgetaboutit.'
Some guys like Luke Donald can be average from the Danger Zone, but he's also the greatest putter on Tour. Or you can be like Stricker in '09...average from the Danger Zone, above average putter and solid driver of the ball...but he was phenomenal from everywhere else that season.
But these guys are exceptions to the rule. However, you get the idea...if you're not all that good from the Danger Zone, then you better make it up in spades in the other 3 categories.
Anyway, Tim Clark is one of the best from the Danger Zone year in and year out. So is David Toms.
And in part, that's a big piece of Augusta.
That's why I picked, before the tournament, Nick Watney and Rory McIlroy. Watney was having a great year from the Danger Zone. McIlroy was #1 from there last season.
The kicker with these two is that they are also long. Watney never really got going, but McIlroy dominated the first 3 rounds.
Clark is also traditionally a pretty good putter as well, although I don't think that is nearly as important at Augusta as people make it out to be.
Which is fine. I just think they've allowed the bombers to dominate ANGC now. A typical US Open layout should make it more difficult for bombers to just recklessly miss the fairway. They still have the advantage in that they'll have less club into holes and will not be in the Danger Zone as much, but when a guy clearly hit one in the trees...I think 95% of the time they shouldn't have an unimpeded shot intot he green.
3JACK
natep
New
Why do you think Phil's so good from the "danger zone"?
I would guess that it's because of his power and length with his irons.
BrendanC
New
Phil - great timing, cojones and belief in his ability to recover if he stuffs it up.
Also: Poor putting keeps David Toms from top 16 finish at the Masters | NOLA.com
Also: Poor putting keeps David Toms from top 16 finish at the Masters | NOLA.com
Jim Kobylinski
Super Moderator
Thanks 3JACK, what do you do for your normal job? You'd make a great analyst (if you aren't one already)
aaron_lohan
New
Tim Clark is a great chipper and pitcher, a South African man joined my club 5 years ago and he had seen Tim as a junior and raved about his short game and reckoned he was the best South African at that area of the game.
Richie3Jack
New
I think that helps. From 100-150 yards he's usually average or below average. So I can see the power helping. I think where power helps in the Danger Zone is that it makes it so you can keep your shots safely on the green. Tom Watson says with long-to-mid irons, he only thought of making solid contact and 'just finding the green.' My feeling is that if you have a 210 yard shot that it cut behind some water. Even if you're hitting a shorter iron like a 7-iron from that long of a distance....you're better off just trying to make solid contact and find the green. There's so much air mass that a 210 yard shot has to go thru, that a gust of wind or something else could cause it to be the wrong distance.
So, my guess is that with somebody like Phil who is probably using about 2-clubs less than the average Tour player. He's more able to 'just make solid contact and find the green' rather than flagging shots. IIRC, the Tour average proximity to the cup from 175-225 yards is 40 feet.
3JACK
Richie3Jack
New
Here are the top 10 Danger Zone players in the last 5 years statistically (each player has qualified for this stat on PGA Tour in each of the last 5 seasons, so Tiger hasn't qualified, thus he's not on here)
1. Heath Slocum
2. Kenny Perry
3. Tim Clark
4. DJ Trahan
5. Alex Cejka
6. Joe Durant
7. Jim Furyk
8. Charles Warren
9. Robert Allenby
10. Chad Campbell
Two guys worth mentioning are of course, Tiger....and Robert Garrigus. I remember watching an interview with baseball statistician Bill James and they asked him if there's one player he could have on his team, who would it be? He replied 'David Wright (3rd baseman for NY Mets). He does a lot of things (statistically) that we really like.'
That's how I feel about Garrigus. If he could just turn himself into an average putter and average around the green, I think he'd win a couple of majors.
Putting I would probably go (not in order, except for Luke, best putter in the world):
1. Luke Donald
2. Brian Gay
3. Matt Kuchar
4. Brandt Snedeker
5. Aaron Baddeley
6. Brad Faxon
7. Bryce Molder
8. Jim Furyk
9. Joe Ogilvie
10. Greg Chalmers
The other 2 I'd have to get back on.
3JACK
Richie3Jack
New
He just qualified for the stat after the Masters. He's ranked 126th out of 195 right now. But, I can't differentiate what he did at the Masters. I'd be willing to bet with his putting struggles and his driver struggles in rounds 1-3, he was probably one of the top players from the DZ at this year's Masters.
3JACK
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